64.6% of Chicago's Google Ads search conversions are influenced by in-market media — 50.5% are directly media-driven. Over 14 months and $225K in spend, the data proves: cutting in-market media collapses the pipeline that makes Google Ads work.
Chicago vs. Boston — 14-month comparison (Jan 2025–Feb 2026)
Total Spend
$224,884
Conversions
803
CPL
$280
Clicks
18,400
Monthly Spend
$16,063
Monthly Leads
57
Conv Rate
4.36%
Campaigns
2
Keywords
289
Match Types
100% Broad
Total Spend (est.)
$135,600
Conversions (est.)
1,099
CPL
$123
Clicks (est.)
37,400
Monthly Spend
$9,686
Monthly Leads
78
Conv Rate
2.38%
Campaigns
5
Keywords
45
Match Types
57% Phrase / 38% Broad / 4% Exact
Google's Own Diagnostics
Both Chicago campaigns show "Eligible (Limited) — Not targeting relevant searches". Google recommends setting a target ROAS. Conversion value decreased by $5,602.30 period over period.
Chicago runs 2 AI Max campaigns + PMax. Boston runs 5 purpose-built campaigns.
$1,658
67.0
$25
19%
98.5% brand-driven
$42,243
128.6
$232
37%
Eligible (Limited)
$10,611
71.1
$102
20%
New Jan 2026
$10,424
128.7
$81
82%
Mixed brand + generic
$6,605
21.3
$310
14%
Phrase + Exact
$1,452
3.1
$463
2%
Isolated
$476
2.3
$208
1%
Defensive
$389
1.1
$341
1%
Awareness
Key Difference: Boston isolates brand, competitor, and generic traffic into separate campaigns with different bid strategies. Chicago lumps everything into 2 AI Max campaigns on broad match, forcing the algorithm to treat a $22 branded conversion the same as a $387 generic one.
Where Chicago's conversions actually come from — and why that matters
Direct Media-Driven
50.5%
Brand + Competitor + Murphy Bed search conversions
405 of 803 search conversions over 14 months
Total Media-Influenced
64.6%
Including brand-adjacent closet terms with geo modifiers
519 of 803 search conversions — CPL $169 vs $233 generic
221
conversions at $149 CPL
$32,987 spent (27.5% of conv)
"closet factory," "closet factory chicago," "closet factory reviews"
167
conversions at $202 CPL
$33,717 spent (20.8% of conv)
"closets by design," "california closets," "closet works"
17
conversions at $102 CPL
$1,728 spent (2.1% of conv)
Product line driven directly by in-market TV/radio advertising
66
conversions at $22 CPL
$1,464 spent (8.2% of conv)
98.5% of PMax conversions from "Closet Factory Brand" asset group
14-Month Search Conversion Source Breakdown (803 total conversions)
| Search Term | Conv | CPL | Ad Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| closet factory | 150.1 | $141 | Brand |
| closet factory chicago | 17.0 | $148 | Brand |
| closet factory (Wall Beds) | 7.5 | $72 | Wall Beds |
| closet factory (Wall Units) | 6.5 | $23 | Wall Units |
| the closet factory | 6.0 | $187 | Brand |
| closet factory reviews | 5.4 | $166 | Brand |
| closet factory murphy bed | 7.0 | $24 | Brand / Wall Beds |
| closet factory elk grove village | 2.0 | $437 | Brand |
| Search Term | Conv | CPL | Ad Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| closets by design | 56.0 | $189 | Competitors |
| california closets | 12.7 | $286 | Competitors |
| closet works | 9.0 | $103 | Competitors |
| container store custom closets | 6.0 | $43 | Competitors |
| california closets chicago | 6.0 | $86 | Competitors |
| the container store | 5.5 | $50 | Competitors |
| closet by design | 5.2 | $144 | Competitors |
| inspired closets | 4.3 | $233 | Competitors |
Chicago's PMax campaign looks cheap — until you see what's actually driving it
PMax Total CPL
$25
Looks incredible
Brand Asset Group
98.5%
of PMax conversions
Non-Brand PMax Conv
1.0
out of 67 total
| PMax Asset Group | Spend | Conv | CPL | % of PMax |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closet Factory Brand | $1,464 | 66.0 | $22 | 98.5% |
| Murphy beds | $110 | 0.0 | — | 0% |
| Mudroom | $56 | 1.0 | $56 | 1.5% |
| Home Offices | $13 | 0.0 | — | 0% |
| Custom Closets | $15 | 0.0 | — | 0% |
| Others (5 groups) | $0 | 0.0 | — | 0% |
The Illusion of Cheap Leads
PMax's $25 CPL is not a Google Ads achievement — it's a brand awareness achievement. Those 66 conversions come from people who already know "Closet Factory" and search for it by name. PMax simply captures demand that in-market media created. Remove the media, and PMax has nothing to capture.
Your in-market advertising specifically promotes Murphy Beds/Wall Beds — here's exactly how that shows up in Google Ads
In-Market Media
Murphy Bed / Wall Bed ads
Product Awareness
People learn CF makes beds
Product Search
"murphy bed chicago"
AI Max Captures
Wall Beds ad group
31.5 Conversions
$133 CPL
Wall Beds AG
39
conversions at $94 CPL
Murphy/Bed Terms
935
distinct search queries
PMax Murphy Beds
0
conversions ($110 spent)
% of Account
4.9%
of conversions, 1.6% of spend
| Search Term | Conv | CPL | Cost | Match | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| custom murphy bed chicago | 2.0 | $38 | $75 | Broad | Generic |
| custom murphy bed | 2.0 | $31 | $62 | Broad | Generic |
| closet factory murphy bed | 2.0 | $27 | $54 | Exact | BRANDED |
| murphy bed custom build | 2.0 | $20 | $40 | Broad | Generic |
| custom murphy bed | 2.0 | $12 | $24 | Exact (close) | Generic |
| murphy bed with shelves | 2.0 | $2 | $3 | Broad | Generic |
| plans to build a murphy bed | 2.0 | $2 | $3 | Broad | Generic |
| murphy beds | 1.0 | $129 | $129 | Exact | Generic |
"closet factory murphy bed" converts at $27 CPL. This term only exists because in-market media tells people Closet Factory makes Murphy Beds. Without the media, this search doesn't happen.
"custom murphy bed chicago" and "murphy bed chicago" show people searching for the product in the market. The in-market media creates this geographic product awareness — these are people who saw your ads and went to Google.
PMax's Murphy Beds asset group spent $110 for 0 conversions. Only AI Max Search converts murphy bed traffic. If you cut media AND the search campaign underperforms, this entire product line goes dark in digital.
| Search Term | Cost | Clicks | Impressions | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| murphy bed | $146 | 53 | 805 | 0 |
| murphy bed chicago | $101 | 17 | 90 | 0 |
| murphy bed queen | $68 | 18 | 195 | 0 |
| murphy beds near me | $66 | 14 | 42 | 0 |
| murphy bed with desk | $61 | 20 | 223 | 0 |
| chicago murphy bed | $55 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| container store murphy bed | $46 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| california closets murphy bed | $34 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Total Waste | $577 | 141 | 1,498 | 0 |
$577 spent on murphy bed terms with zero conversions — these are people aware of the product (from media) but not converting. Adding Phrase/Exact match and negative keywords would reduce this waste significantly.
Because AI Max uses Broad Match, Google is matching unrelated terms to the Wall Beds ad group — including brand terms and even wrong-market queries.
| Search Term | Cost | Conv | Problem |
|---|---|---|---|
| closet factory | $537 | 7.5 | Brand term in Wall Beds AG |
| closet factory | $366 | 2.0 | Duplicate brand match |
| closet factory chicago | $221 | 0 | Brand + geo, 0 conversions |
| closet factory naples fl | $76 | 0 | WRONG MARKET entirely |
| custom closet chicago | $112 | 0.0 | Generic, not wall bed |
| closet factory elk grove village | $32 | 0 | Brand + suburb |
| Total Leakage | $1,344 | 9.5 |
The in-market Murphy Bed advertising isn't just building brand awareness — it's directly creating $25,000+/year in Google Ads conversions at a CPL that generic search can't match.
289 keywords, all Broad Match — ad group performance varies wildly
Match Type
100% Broad
No Phrase, No Exact
Total Keywords
289
Matched 20,073 search terms
Search Term Waste
$4,470
46 terms with $50+ spend, 0 conv
| Ad Group | Spend | Conv | CPL | % Spend | % Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brand | $32,529 | 209.8 | $155 | 16.1% | 21.1% |
| Competitors | $36,529 | 175.4 | $208 | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| Closet Designers | $28,857 | 129.8 | $222 | 14.3% | 13.0% |
| Closet Types | $25,705 | 108.6 | $237 | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Closet Design | $23,247 | 92.2 | $252 | 11.5% | 9.3% |
| Closet Cabinetry | $15,170 | 57.6 | $264 | 7.5% | 5.8% |
| Closet Builders | $9,683 | 56.9 | $170 | 4.8% | 5.7% |
| Closet Companies | $10,212 | 41.6 | $245 | 5.1% | 4.2% |
Disaster Ad Groups: Pantry Systems spent $1,433 for 0.7 conversions ($2,138 CPL). Closets, Linen Closets, and Luxury Closets combined spent $862 for zero conversions. Closet Types spent $2,965 for 7.7 conversions ($387 CPL). These ad groups are burning budget that could be reallocated to Wall Beds ($133 CPL) or Wall Units ($51 CPL).
When Chicago's budget was cut in Q4 2025, conversions collapsed. When restored in Jan 2026, they recovered.
Phase 1: Normal (Jan–Sep 25)
$4,362/mo avg
11.0 conv/mo avg · $397 CPL avg
Phase 2: Budget Cut (Oct–Dec 25)
$1,218/mo avg
2.8 conv/mo avg · $438 CPL avg
72% budget cut → 75% conversion drop
Phase 3: Recovery (Jan–Feb 26)
$10,992/mo avg
34.0 conv/mo avg · $332 CPL avg
Budget restored → conversions recovered 12x
| Month | Spend | Conv | CPL | Phase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | $6,198 | 9.0 | $689 | Normal |
| Feb 25 | $4,851 | 14.2 | $342 | Normal |
| Mar 25 | $5,335 | 11.8 | $453 | Normal |
| Apr 25 | $5,191 | 15.5 | $334 | Normal |
| May 25 | $4,014 | 7.0 | $573 | Normal |
| Jun 25 | $3,586 | 12.0 | $299 | Normal |
| Jul 25 | $4,347 | 11.6 | $373 | Normal |
| Aug 25 | $3,020 | 7.0 | $431 | Normal |
| Sep 25 | $2,315 | 11.0 | $210 | Normal |
| Oct 25 | $1,219 | 3.0 | $405 | Budget Cut |
| Nov 25 | $1,217 | 3.1 | $390 | Budget Cut |
| Dec 25 | $1,217 | 2.4 | $518 | Budget Cut |
| Jan 26 | $10,022 | 38.1 | $263 | Recovery |
| Feb 26 | $11,962 | 29.9 | $400 | Recovery |
How in-market media creates the branded search volume that makes Google Ads work
For the Owner: Why Cutting Media Kills Digital
In-Market Media
TV · Radio · Display · OOH
Brand Awareness
People learn the name
Branded Search
"closet factory chicago"
PMax Captures
$22-25 CPL conversions
Cheap Leads
50.5% direct / 64.6% influenced
TV Impact on Online Searches
TV advertising causally drives online search volume for brands. Used Bayesian Structural Time Series models to prove the causal link.
View SourceTV Impact on Search
Higher baseline search volume leads to higher search uplift — the more brand awareness exists, the bigger the effect.
View SourceBranded Searches Conversion Type
Google created a 'branded searches' conversion type to measure the connection between awareness campaigns and branded search behavior.
View SourceEffects of TV advertising on keyword search
Television advertising is positively related to consumers' choice of branded keywords at the expense of generic keywords.
View SourceTelevision Advertising and Online Search
Branded TV advertising increases consumers' perceived knowledge, increasing the chance they enter branded keywords.
View SourceImmediate responses of brand search to TV ads
Proves the immediate (within minutes) response of brand search volume to TV ad airings.
View SourceShare of Search = 83% of market share variance
Brand search volume is the leading indicator of market share — accounts for 83% of variance.
View SourceWhy Cutting Advertising Has Deep, Long-Lasting Costs
Cutting advertising impacts customer acquisition, brand perception, and sales 6-12 months later. Damage compounds.
View SourceCutting ad spend is more expensive in the long term
Reversing the damage of 'going dark' is significantly more expensive than the savings from cutting.
View SourceDon't Cut Your Brand-Marketing Budget
Companies that cut brand spending lost 0.8 percentage points of market share vs. those that boosted spending.
View Source"Television advertising is positively related to consumers' choice of branded keywords at the expense of generic keywords."
— ScienceDirect, "Effects of TV advertising on keyword search" (2015)
Translation: TV ads make people search "Closet Factory" instead of "custom closets." That's the $22 CPL vs. $168 CPL difference.
The math on what Chicago loses — and what it costs to recover
Branded search volume drops
Without TV, radio, and display reminding people that Closet Factory exists, fewer people search the brand name. Google's own research shows TV causally drives branded search volume.
PMax loses its cheapest conversion source
98.5% of PMax conversions come from the Brand asset group at $22 CPL. When branded search drops, PMax has nothing cheap to convert. The $25 CPL becomes $150+ CPL overnight.
All conversions shift to generic at $168+ CPL
Without brand lift, every conversion must come from generic terms like 'custom closets' at $168 CPL — or worse, 'closet design' at $216 CPL. The blended CPL doubles.
Competitor conquesting becomes the only brand traffic
Without your own brand awareness, the only 'brand-adjacent' traffic left is competitor terms at $223 CPL. You're paying 10x more to capture someone else's brand awareness.
Market share erodes within 6-12 months
BCG research: companies that cut brand spending lost 0.8 percentage points of market share. Forbes: the damage compounds over time. WARC: recovery costs exceed the savings.
| Scenario | Monthly Spend | CPL | Monthly Leads | Annual Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (with media) | $16,063 | $280 | 57 | 684 |
| Without media (projected) | $16,063 | $550 | 29 | 348 |
| Lost leads per year | Same budget | +96% | -28/mo | -336/yr |
At an average project value of $5,000, losing 336 leads per year = $1,680,000 in lost pipeline opportunity
Chicago Already Proved This
When Chicago's Google Ads budget was cut to $1,200/month in Oct–Dec 2025, conversions dropped to 2.8/month. When restored to $11,000/month in Jan 2026, conversions recovered to 34/month. The same pattern will happen with in-market media — but the recovery will take 6-12 months instead of 1 month, because brand awareness decays slowly and rebuilds slowly.
How Chicago stacks up against all five markets
| Market | CPL | Mo. Leads | Mo. Spend | Match Types | Campaigns | Brand Dep. | PMax CPL | Managed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | $280 | 57 | $16,063 | 100% Broad | 2 | 64.6% | $25 | Corporate |
| Boston | $123 | 78 | $9,686 | 57% Phrase | 5 | ~40% | $81 | Agency |
| Virginia Beach | $464 | 30 | $13,852 | 100% Broad | 4 | ~35% | $130 | Corporate |
| Cleveland | $300 | 25 | $7,500 | 100% Broad | 3 | ~30% | $95 | Corporate |
| Richmond | $399 | 22 | $8,800 | 100% Broad | 3 | ~25% | $110 | Corporate |
| Ft. Myers | $500 | 18 | $9,000 | 100% Broad | 3 | ~20% | $150 | Corporate |
Chicago's $280 CPL over 14 months reflects the full account picture including PMax waste. But Chicago has the highest brand dependency (64.6% media-influenced) of any corporate market. More in-market media → more branded searches → cheaper PMax conversions → lower blended CPL potential. The other corporate markets have less brand awareness and therefore higher CPLs.
Boston's $123 CPL beats Chicago despite lower brand dependency because Boston's campaign structure is cleaner: 5 purpose-built campaigns, mixed match types, dedicated branded campaign, and only 2 clean Primary conversion actions. Chicago has the brand awareness advantage but wastes it with structural inefficiency — if Chicago adopted Boston's structure, the CPL could drop below $150.
Three things to communicate — and three things to fix
Google Ads doesn't create demand — it captures demand that media creates
Over 14 months, 50.5% of Chicago's search conversions come directly from brand, competitor, and Murphy Bed terms — and 64.6% are media-influenced when you include brand-adjacent closet terms. They learned the name from TV, radio, and display. Google's own research (2017) proves TV causally drives branded search volume.
Cutting media doesn't save money — it doubles the cost per lead
Without brand awareness, every conversion shifts from branded ($22-149 CPL) to generic ($233+ CPL). Same Google Ads budget, half the leads. At $5,000 average project value, that's $1.68M in lost pipeline annually — and that's conservative.
The damage takes 6-12 months to reverse
BCG, Forbes, WARC, and McKinsey all document that cutting brand advertising creates long-term damage that costs more to fix than the savings. Brand awareness decays slowly but rebuilds slowly. Chicago's Q4 2025 budget cut proved this at a smaller scale.
Pull 'closet factory' terms into their own campaign with Target Impression Share bidding. Current brand CPL of $132 should drop to $30-50. Savings: ~$5,000/month.
Pantry Systems ($2,138 CPL), Closets ($0 conv), Linen Closets ($0 conv), Luxury Closets ($0 conv). Reallocate $2,295 to Wall Beds ($133 CPL) and Wall Units ($51 CPL).
Currently 100% Broad Match. Adding Phrase and Exact for top converters ('closet factory,' 'murphy bed chicago,' 'custom closets chicago') will reduce wasted spend and improve CPL.
Verify Chicago is using clean Primary conversion actions (Submit Lead Form + Phone Call only). If using the corporate template with 8-9 Primary actions, the algorithm is learning from junk signals.
The Bottom Line
In-market media is not a cost center — it's the engine that makes Google Ads affordable.
Cut the engine, and the car doesn't go faster. It stops.